Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ff3…9cf5 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-13%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$17
sports 12% +$1
crypto 7% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.5% -2.7% 78% 67% -37.9%
≤30d 11 -5.0% -14.0% 64% 55% -39.0%
≤90d 11 -5.0% -14.0% 64% 55% -39.0%
all 11 -5.0% -14.0% 64% 55% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 55% -39.0%
10% -22.3% 36% -44.9%
15% -29.8% 36% -50.2%
20% -36.7% 18% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 57¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? Yes 100¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +93%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 25 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$2 +49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $1 $0 -22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 95¢ $15 2d
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 2d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 4d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 96¢ $2 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.90 · official $73.90 (match) · 36 history records