Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2ff6…7c7b world 55 markets active 5d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$317 (+4%) realized +$684 · open −$367
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,043
14 days−$1,043
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$1,146
sports 17% +$1,354
other 10% −$84
politics 9% +$41
crypto 6% +$242
finance 2% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -55.6% -59.8% 9% 9% -55.7%
≤30d 19 +7.3% -3.0% 47% 42% -12.6%
≤90d 35 +13.5% +2.7% 49% 43% +3.0%
all 35 +13.5% +2.7% 49% 43% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 43% +3.0%
10% -7.2% 40% -6.9%
15% -16.1% 34% -15.9%
20% -24.4% 26% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$127 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$2,860
Realized+$684
Unrealized−$367
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions20
Markets (closed)35 / 55
History coverage35d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $500 $516 +$16 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $500 $510 +$10 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 73¢ $500 $507 +$7 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 48¢ 84¢ $100 $176 +$76 (+76%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $200 $134 −$66 (-33%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 89¢ 95¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 38¢ 38¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $200 $93 −$107 (-54%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 82¢ $92 $88 −$4 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $75 $81 +$6 (+8%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 48¢ 26¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 38¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 53¢ 25¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Will Alexander Volkov become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 54¢ 8¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-85%)
Will Israel Adesanya be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $205 +$795 +388%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$427 +142%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$39 +39%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$142 +71%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$37 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $53 +$225 +426%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week? May 18 $101 +$40 +39%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? May 16 $103 +$79 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 11? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 10 $100 +$7 +7%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 10 $202 +$85 +42%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $102 +$453 +442%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$398 +388%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $101 +$74 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 09 $103 +$66 +64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $100 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $102 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $203 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $205 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $92 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $500 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $500 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $500 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $500 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 34¢ $200 25d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 47¢ $100 25d
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 37d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $100 37d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $100 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 38d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $200 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $100 38d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $105 38d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 38d
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week? BUY No 71¢ $101 38d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 38d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? BUY Yes 55¢ $103 38d
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? BUY No 41¢ $100 38d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $100 38d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $100 38d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,860.17 · official $2,856.93 (match) · 130 history records