Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ff8…7002 world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%26W / 62L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$11
politics 22% +$2
sports 16% +$1
other 16% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$4
finance 1% +$3
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 30 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 72 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 4% -9.3%
all 88 -1.3% -10.7% 30% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses26 / 62
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage281d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $99 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $24 −$3 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $93 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $40 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $99 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $270 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $124 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $112 −$3 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $163 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $196 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $10 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $89 +$3 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $37 +$2 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $98 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $4 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $75 +$12 +15%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $265 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $127 +$14 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $26 −$5 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $96 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $404 +$2 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $281 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $245 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $99 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $99 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $4 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $17 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $24 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $27 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $94 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $93 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $40 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $33 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 400 history records