Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ffa…7710 sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$374 (+3%) realized +$314 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%42W / 81L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$428
7 days−$832
14 days−$633
30 days+$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$243
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -16.0% -24.0% 35% 35% -41.8%
≤30d 95 +0.4% -9.2% 37% 37% -3.3%
≤90d 123 -6.8% -15.7% 34% 34% -7.9%
all 123 -6.8% -15.7% 34% 34% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 34% -7.9%
10% -23.8% 33% -16.7%
15% -31.1% 30% -24.8%
20% -37.9% 26% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$50 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$314
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses42 / 81
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions6
Markets (closed)123 / 129
History coverage48d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Walczaki 32¢ 48¢ $86 $130 +$44 (+52%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Team Secret 78¢ 100¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A 9INE 38¢ 48¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Virtus.pro 80¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Gabriela Ruse 43¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season KRÜ Blaze 11¢ 5¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 22 $82 +$57 +70%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $22 +$26 +114%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $28 +$44 +155%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Hapoel Galil Elyon vs. Elitzur Netanya Jun 22 $95 −$93 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO1) - South Americ Jun 22 $2 +$3 +133%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $409 −$402 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2 +$3 +165%
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs LOS (BO1) - South America Jun 20 $39 +$9 +23%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 20 $33 −$17 -51%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 20 $138 −$5 -3%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $61 +$134 +219%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$6 +97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $267 −$264 -99%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 19 $84 +$53 +63%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $394 +$177 +45%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $33 −$1 -4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $281 −$278 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $81 −$79 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 18 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Team Yandex (BO5) - BetBoom Ri Jun 18 $37 +$43 +119%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $228 −$5 -2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Anna Tabunshchyk Jun 17 $12 −$5 -39%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $4 +$6 +172%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $19 +$32 +170%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $3 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 09 $97 −$6 -6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $39 +$144 +365%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 09 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $388 +$156 +40%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $514 −$53 -10%
LoL: The Otter Side vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $52 +$67 +129%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $40 +$155 +388%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 08 $48 −$47 -99%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Frites Esports Club (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stag Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Ruddy Sack (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Jun 08 $131 +$150 +114%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Schoolkate vs. Harris: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $76 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S BUY Virtus.pro 80¢ $6 58m
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 78¢ $50 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Geekay Esports 59¢ $57 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Geekay Esports 59¢ $22 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Geekay Esports 59¢ $4 3h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 29¢ $6 3h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 29¢ $1 3h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 29¢ $4 3h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 29¢ $1 3h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 29¢ $3 3h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 29¢ $5 3h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 29¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 33¢ $53 7h
Hapoel Galil Elyon vs. Elitzur Netanya BUY Elitzur Netanya 37¢ $95 8h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 39¢ $25 8h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 35¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 35¢ $0 8h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 35¢ $1 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 43¢ $5 11h
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO1) - South Americ BUY Black Dragons e-Sports 43¢ $2 23h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Blaze 11¢ $4 27h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $2 29h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $84 30h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 35¢ $102 30h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 35¢ $102 30h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 35¢ $120 30h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 38¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 32¢ $87 32h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) SELL Team Falcons 14¢ $16 2d
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.84 · official $220.84 (match) · 440 history records