Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2ffc…1a9e other 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+9%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%83W / 68L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$42
14 days+$50
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$55
sports 33% +$57
crypto 3% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.6% +1.0% 67% 67% +19.4%
≤30d 14 +9.2% -1.2% 64% 64% +13.9%
≤90d 89 +11.5% +0.9% 61% 58% +6.4%
all 151 -1.8% -11.2% 55% 50% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 50% -0.7%
10% -19.7% 50% -10.2%
15% -27.4% 41% -18.9%
20% -34.5% 29% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses83 / 68
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 153
History coverage202d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $16 +$18 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $9 +$8 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $11 −$11 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina May 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek May 13 $4 +$2 +39%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $3 −$2 -99%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score May 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $22 +$6 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $4 −$3 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 +$20 +388%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $17 +$11 +64%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $17 +$12 +67%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $19 +$17 +89%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $22 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 30 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 28 $9 +$4 +48%
Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 28 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $10 +$7 +73%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 26 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $8 +$4 +54%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 22 $5 +$3 +64%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Elmer Moeller vs Hugo Gaston Apr 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Maximus Jones Apr 20 $5 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 35h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 35h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 36h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 36h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $9 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 16d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 71¢ $6 32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek SELL Iga Swiatek 100¢ $6 32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 71¢ $4 33d
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 35d
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $4 35d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.75 · official $34.75 (match) · 274 history records