Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ffd…d99f sports 1290 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$162 (-5%) realized −$155 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%732W / 547L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day127.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$181
14 days−$193
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$58
other 16% −$8
world 5% −$150
weather 1% −$6
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 330 -0.8% -10.2% 52% 49% -24.5%
≤30d 1279 -0.5% -9.9% 57% 55% -15.6%
≤90d 1279 -0.5% -9.9% 57% 55% -15.6%
all 1279 -0.5% -9.9% 57% 55% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 55% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 52% -23.7%
15% -26.4% 37% -31.1%
20% -33.6% 24% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$155
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses732 / 547
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1279 / 1290
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day127.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 53¢ 61¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 85¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Yes 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 71¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 55¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $3 +$1 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $1 $0 +36%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $3 $0 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +114%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +114%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $147 −$144 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5 +$6 +126%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $3 +$6 +188%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $2 +$3 +145%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $4 +$2 +58%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $4 −$2 -61%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 16 $1 +$2 +165%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $13 −$6 -49%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Boulter Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 +$5 +124%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$7 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 35m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 85¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 93¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 93¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 70¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $1 9h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 41¢ $1 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 14h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $1 14h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 72¢ $1 15h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 32¢ $1 15h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 42¢ $1 16h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 16h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 17h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $2 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 35¢ $1 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 34¢ $1 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $3 19h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $1 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 67¢ $3 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 36¢ $1 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 57¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.70 · official $11.57 (match) · 3500 history records