Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ffe…aa16 crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$161 (+4%) realized +$156 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate67%62W / 30L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$174
14 days+$173
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$21
other 33% +$44
sports 21% +$104
crypto 10% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.5% -10.0% 79% 39% -4.3%
≤30d 39 -7.5% -16.3% 69% 36% -5.9%
≤90d 92 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 37% -7.1%
all 92 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 37% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 37% -7.1%
10% -24.4% 24% -16.0%
15% -31.7% 9% -24.1%
20% -38.4% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses62 / 30
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage70d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$31 +30%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $74 −$56 -75%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $79 −$76 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $273 +$17 +6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $94 +$7 +7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $274 +$32 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $151 +$22 +14%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $35 +$22 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $236 +$14 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $190 +$15 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 +$6 +5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 +$26 +25%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $78 +$22 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$24 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $78 +$21 +27%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$9 -79%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$5 -41%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $336 +$16 +5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,229 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2PM ET May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 11 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 23 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 22 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $74 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $50 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $273 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $68 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $94 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $50 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $306 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $200 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $74 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 29h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $58 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 30h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $31 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $4 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.75 · official $105.75 (match) · 281 history records