Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fff…923a
sports · 53 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$97 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$100 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses23 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage887d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 2 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylov Kopylov 68¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs G2 39¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 33¢ 0¢ $241 $0 −$241 (-100%)
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? No 18¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Aurora Gaming 35¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Team Falcons win Blast Slam VI? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs PARIVISION 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B BC.Game Esports 33¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 PARIVISION 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs MOUZ 36¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 12¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Spirit 59¢ 0¢ $201 $0 −$201 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Grou Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? May 10 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $27 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? Apr 15 $10 +$98 +981%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Mar 28 $10 +$17 +170%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 25 $120 +$41 +34%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Mar 03 $15 +$15 +100%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 02 $100 −$85 -85%
Will Team Vitality win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? Feb 23 $100 +$151 +150%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Men's Knockout - Slovakia vs. Finland Feb 22 $50 +$16 +33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Pla Feb 20 $20 +$40 +194%
Will Team Falcons win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? Feb 20 $50 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 19 $24 +$24 +100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 18 $25 +$25 +100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G Feb 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Team Falcons win Blast Slam VI? Feb 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Team Vitality win IEM Krakow 2026? Feb 09 $251 +$135 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 09 $252 +$232 +92%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 05 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 04 $71 +$32 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $58 +$13 +22%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 01 $13 −$13 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $241 −$241 -100%
Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)? Jan 17 $125 +$10 +8%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 07 $100 −$38 -38%
UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. Barriault Jul 27 $35 +$6 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGhee Jul 27 $35 +$10 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridder Jul 27 $30 +$40 +133%
Boxing: Will Usyk win by KO/TKO/DQ? Jul 20 $20 +$27 +133%
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier Jul 20 $25 +$20 +82%
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylov Jul 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 46% −$15
other 36% +$213
politics 9% −$241
world 5% $0
crypto 2% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 39¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $5 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 35¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 46¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 38¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Grou SELL BetBoom Team 50¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Grou BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $5 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 15d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 31d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 46d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 59d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 59d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 59d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 59d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $26 59d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 60d
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 60d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $100 61d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY PARIVISION 44¢ $8 78d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 37¢ $10 78d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 75¢ $120 83d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 97d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY PARIVISION 34¢ $10 102d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 50¢ $15 104d
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -35.9% -42.0% 25% 25% -33.7%
≤30d 9 -43.0% -48.4% 22% 22% -42.0%
≤90d 18 +30.1% +17.7% 33% 33% -2.5%
all 51 +6.5% -3.6% 45% 43% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 43% -13.1%
10% -12.8% 37% -21.4%
15% -21.3% 31% -29.0%
20% -29.0% 29% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.28 · official $5.28 (match) · 135 history records