Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x3002…c58f world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$7
other 26% −$1
politics 13% $0
sports 11% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 7% -8.4%
all 48 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.94 per $1 lost it wins $3.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage270d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $54 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $7 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $7 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $13 +$3 +24%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $44 +$4 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $92 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $2 $0 -17%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $22 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 17 $23 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $52 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $17 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $10 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $16 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $26 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $28 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $2 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $17 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $21 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $26 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $37 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $44 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $44 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $1.94 (match) · 191 history records