Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3009…be46 crypto 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$481 (-26%) realized −$488 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%69W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$6
14 days−$43
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$117
other 16% −$276
sports 11% −$60
weather 3% −$27
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 39% -10.5%
≤30d 100 -16.0% -24.0% 49% 41% -21.9%
≤90d 156 -20.8% -28.3% 42% 34% -25.4%
all 169 -23.6% -30.9% 41% 33% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 33% -35.3%
10% -37.5% 24% -41.5%
15% -43.6% 21% -47.1%
20% -49.1% 15% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$488
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses69 / 100
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage196d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $105 $113 +$7 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$14 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$38 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $26 −$2 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $62 −$3 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $9 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.56 · official $112.56 (match) · 354 history records