Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
30 0x300b…8e51 sports 521 markets active 4d ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,777 (-4%) realized −$2,773 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%131W / 387L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Fees−$1,521est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$355
other 12% +$1,496
crypto 3% −$717
weather 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -41.6% -47.2% 20% 20% -2.2%
≤30d 344 -31.4% -38.0% 24% 22% -10.2%
≤90d 518 -29.4% -36.1% 25% 24% -8.1%
all 518 -29.4% -36.1% 25% 24% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.1% 24% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.2% 23% -16.9%
15% -47.8% 22% -25.0%
20% -52.9% 19% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$92 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,773
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses131 / 387
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,521
Open positions2
Markets (closed)518 / 521
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$140
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 518 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 +$694 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $86 +$82 +96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $267 +$822 +308%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $72 +$66 +92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $391 −$184 -47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $167 −$167 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $448 +$391 +87%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $222 −$222 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $191 −$191 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $549 −$549 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $507 +$502 +99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $582 +$532 +91%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $117 +$611 +523%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $110 +$127 +115%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $56 −$27 -48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $321 +$335 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $289 +$591 +204%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $179 −$81 -45%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $543 +$515 +95%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $197 −$16 -8%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $316 −$316 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $99 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 13¢ $47 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 31¢ $79 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 58¢ $146 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 44¢ $108 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 23¢ $24 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 24¢ $62 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 32¢ $34 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,113 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 5¢ $104 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 23¢ $60 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 31¢ $81 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $23 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $38 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $222 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 23¢ $120 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 84¢ $52 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 84¢ $318 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 84¢ $719 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 6¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 5¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $62 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.50 · official $1.50 (match) · 3500 history records