Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x300c…d650 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$602 (-4%) realized −$607 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$756
14 days+$756
30 days+$756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$61
sports 41% +$68
world 2% −$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 60% +42.4%
≤30d 5 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 60% +42.4%
≤90d 10 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 50% +9.5%
all 53 -18.6% -26.3% 36% 36% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 36% -11.9%
10% -33.4% 36% -20.3%
15% -39.8% 36% -28.0%
20% -45.7% 36% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$349 vs −$205 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized−$607
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 59
History coverage208d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 61¢ 62¢ $578 $583 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $506 +$356 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $304 +$269 +88%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $381 +$257 +67%
Will CF América win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $400 −$393 -98%
CF América vs. Atlas FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $280 −$275 -98%
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5) Apr 26 $400 +$317 +79%
CD Guadalajara vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $200 +$257 +128%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 14 $1,078 +$937 +87%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $400 +$711 +178%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $800 +$1,015 +127%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $300 +$468 +156%
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? Feb 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Monterrey: Both Teams to Score Feb 22 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $400 +$400 +100%
Will Club León FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $360 +$237 +66%
Club Tijuana vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $200 +$340 +170%
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to Score Feb 22 $300 +$226 +75%
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $100 +$316 +316%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $140 +$171 +122%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Feb 17 $14 −$14 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score Feb 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Feb 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Club Necaxa vs. CF Monterrey: Both Teams to Score Jan 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Club León FC win on 2026-01-13? Jan 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 04 $100 +$98 +98%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $40 +$68 +170%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Dec 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. SK Slavia Praha: O/U 3.5 Dec 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Dec 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $85 +$151 +178%
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Nov 26 $20 −$18 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 61¢ $585 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 64¢ $505 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 32¢ $408 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland v BUY 14¢ $42 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 52¢ $304 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 14¢ $154 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 39¢ $509 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $381 5d
Will CF América win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $200 57d
Will CF América win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $200 57d
CF América vs. Atlas FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $280 57d
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5) SELL Club Tijuana 100¢ $717 57d
CD Guadalajara vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $457 57d
CD Guadalajara vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $200 58d
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 58d
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5) BUY Club Tijuana 55¢ $400 58d
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $200 99d
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $400 99d
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $400 100d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $400 100d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) SELL Real Madrid CF 100¢ $2,016 100d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 55¢ $679 100d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $200 100d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $500 100d
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $400 100d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $400 100d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 51¢ $400 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.23 · official $1,483.23 · 92 history records