Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
30 0x300e…fb95 crypto 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$597 (+11%) realized +$606 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate79%48W / 13L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$749
tech 24% $0
other 17% +$1
sports 9% −$183
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.9% -4.1% 62% 46% -6.4%
≤30d 25 +12.7% +1.9% 76% 44% +2.3%
≤90d 33 +9.6% -0.8% 82% 33% -1.5%
all 61 +10.5% +0.0% 79% 31% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 31% +1.4%
10% -9.6% 28% -8.3%
15% -18.3% 21% -17.2%
20% -26.3% 16% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$50 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$811
Realized+$606
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses48 / 13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)61 / 66
History coverage234d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $374 $373 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $197 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 94¢ 94¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-1%)
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? No 97¢ 80¢ $38 $32 −$6 (-17%)
Will Love Island USA be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? No 97¢ 92¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $87 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $54 +$27 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$75 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$7 +8%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $134 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $68 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $92 +$108 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 25 $95 +$94 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 25 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 25 $63 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 25 $52 +$48 +93%
Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App May 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? May 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? May 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #1 Free App in the US Apple App May 24 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 24 $138 +$62 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 24 $216 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 24 $49 −$46 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 24 $79 +$51 +64%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 04 $161 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 19 $53 +$73 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 19 $77 +$120 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 19 $149 +$213 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 19 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 07 $32 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Jan 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,700 on January 12? Jan 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jan 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 25 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Dec 25 $27 −$11 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $374 1h
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Will Love Island USA be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June BUY No 97¢ $22 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $198 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 94¢ $188 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $43 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $14 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $54 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $74 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $64 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $55 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $810.97 · official $810.97 (match) · 308 history records