Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3013…279b sports 409 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,107 (-10%) realized −$4,015 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%157W / 249L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$730est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$427
7 days+$184
14 days−$16,608
30 days−$13,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,539
other 1% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 43% +18.5%
≤30d 261 -56.1% -60.3% 18% 18% -49.5%
≤90d 406 -9.0% -17.7% 39% 39% -19.0%
all 406 -9.0% -17.7% 39% 39% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -19.0%
10% -25.6% 39% -26.8%
15% -32.8% 38% -33.8%
20% -39.4% 37% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +54% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$93 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$4,015
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses157 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$730
Open positions2
Markets (closed)406 / 409
History coverage72d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $234 $236 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs Fire Flux Esports 53¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 21 $66 +$77 +116%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $284 +$348 +123%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $35 −$35 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $184 −$181 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $106 −$103 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$48 +82%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $281 −$226 -80%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $108 +$98 +91%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $262 −$258 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $202 +$204 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$28 +100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $269 −$264 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $16 +$48 +291%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 −$64 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $267 +$122 +46%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $98 +$112 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $199 +$222 +111%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $45 +$47 +105%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$116 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $108 +$206 +191%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $109 +$98 +89%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $54 −$34 -63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $377 −$371 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $42 +$134 +320%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $163 +$178 +109%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $195 −$191 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $302 −$297 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $152 −$149 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $307 +$411 +134%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $195 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $184 +$123 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $266 +$275 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL Toronto KOI 100¢ $143 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 42¢ $3 2h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 42¢ $4 2h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 49¢ $20 2h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 48¢ $11 2h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 44¢ $20 2h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 42¢ $7 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $236 2h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L SELL Vancouver Surge 100¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $632 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 53¢ $95 3h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Vancouver Surge 49¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 44¢ $284 5h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 57¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 46¢ $35 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $184 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser SELL Virtus.pro 1¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 33¢ $106 7d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Heretics 99¢ $107 7d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 54¢ $59 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 46¢ $87 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 10¢ $49 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $194 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 34¢ $7 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 99¢ $206 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 51¢ $108 7d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 43¢ $18 7d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $244 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) SELL T1 100¢ $406 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.76 · official $235.76 (match) · 1060 history records