Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3016…54e9 weather 225 markets active 6h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,717 (+6%) realized +$2,824 · open −$1,107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%43W / 180L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day97.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$323
7 days−$887
14 days+$1,493
30 days+$1,330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$1,402
other 28% −$1,064
politics 13% $0
sports 4% $0
world 0% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -36.8% -42.8% 15% 13% -26.0%
≤30d 223 -18.1% -25.9% 19% 17% -3.8%
≤90d 223 -18.1% -25.9% 19% 17% -3.8%
all 223 -18.1% -25.9% 19% 17% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 17% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 15% -13.0%
15% -39.5% 12% -21.4%
20% -45.4% 10% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$31 · ×5.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2,401
Realized+$2,824
Unrealized−$1,107
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses43 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)223 / 225
History coverage19d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day97.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 94¢ $1,200 $2,264 +$1,064 (+89%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $1,200 $136 −$1,064 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $43 $1 −$43 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $22 −$20 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 17 $136 +$16 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 17 $64 −$32 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $79 −$51 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 −$40 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$14 +102%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 −$17 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $277 +$124 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 11? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 14 $87 −$82 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 14 $183 −$155 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or below on June 12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C or below on June 11? Jun 14 $47 −$45 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $437 +$361 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 13 $247 +$124 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 13 $878 +$25 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $86 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$190 +856%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $268 −$186 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $61 −$56 -93%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $233 +$59 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $79 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,400.56 · official $2,400.56 (match) · 2033 history records