Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3019…631e other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$88 (-10%) realized −$13 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$44
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$270
sports 9% +$171
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-65.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -86.6% -87.9% 0% 0% -55.6%
≤30d 28 -61.5% -65.2% 11% 11% -15.8%
≤90d 28 -61.5% -65.2% 11% 11% -15.8%
all 28 -61.5% -65.2% 11% 11% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.2% 11% -15.8%
10% -68.5% 11% -23.8%
15% -71.6% 11% -31.2%
20% -74.4% 11% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$10 · ×7.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage14d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $337 $268 −$70 (-21%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$31 +76%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $10 +$13 +128%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 +$187 +479%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $42 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $45 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $71 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 10d
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 10d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 12d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 12d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 12d
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 12d
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 12d
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.16 · official $356.16 (match) · 54 history records