Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
30 0x301b…4bcc sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$266 (+18%) realized +$297 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%28W / 22L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$22
14 days+$214
30 days+$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$169
other 41% +$98
crypto 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 50% -4.9%
≤30d 50 +15.8% +4.8% 56% 56% +8.2%
≤90d 50 +15.8% +4.8% 56% 56% +8.2%
all 50 +15.8% +4.8% 56% 56% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 56% +8.2%
10% -5.3% 56% -2.1%
15% -14.4% 52% -11.6%
20% -22.8% 46% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$22 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$297
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses28 / 22
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage20d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$36 +70%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$39 +129%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$20 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$30 +119%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -23%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$48 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 +$36 +140%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 +$17 +57%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$48 +188%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$26 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$7 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$33 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $81 +$24 +30%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 +$41 +402%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $41 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $30 9h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 64¢ $51 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 4d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 60¢ $40 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $25 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $25 7d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 66¢ $30 8d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $30 8d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 9d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $25 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 9d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $30 9d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $30 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 10d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $25 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.75 · official $58.75 (match) · 105 history records