Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x301d…47e7 politics 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,914 (+1%) realized +$1,913 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%41W / 122L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,387per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$124
other 41% +$111
sports 12% +$1,856
economics 2% −$4
culture 1% −$3
world 1% −$10
crypto 0% +$46
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +11.8% +1.2% 9% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 90 +4.4% -5.6% 7% 4% -9.2%
all 163 +2.7% -7.1% 25% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 11% -8.8%
10% -16.0% 11% -17.5%
15% -24.1% 10% -25.5%
20% -31.6% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,683) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$8 · ×8.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$1,913
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses41 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,387
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $420 $421 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 24 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $815 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,702 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,268 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,731 −$4 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,542 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,301 −$4 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,669 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,873 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5,907 −$6 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,791 −$4 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $45 +$140 +307%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $85 +$73 +86%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,994 −$5 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,564 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $657 +$4 +1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,908 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,932 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $62 +$31 +50%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,474 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $3,004 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $2,723 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $4,515 −$6 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $4,065 −$6 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $3,104 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $597 2m
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $598 2h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $788 2h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $789 5h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $707 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $708 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $908 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $909 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $828 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $829 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $733 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $734 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $452 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $452 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $733 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $735 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $814 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $815 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $731 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $732 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,482 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,484 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,216 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,218 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,572 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,574 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,267 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,268 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,217 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,219 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.78 · official $420.78 (match) · 544 history records