Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x301e…b752 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,901 (-4%) realized −$2,961 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 42L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,122per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,703
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -26.6% -33.6% 29% 21% -55.1%
≤30d 36 -16.8% -24.8% 36% 25% -25.2%
≤90d 68 -12.6% -20.9% 38% 31% -16.3%
all 68 -12.6% -20.9% 38% 31% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 31% -16.3%
10% -28.5% 25% -24.3%
15% -35.4% 24% -31.6%
20% -41.7% 18% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,459) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,023 vs −$771 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$2,961
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,122
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Up 24¢ 40¢ $90 $150 +$60 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 24 $111 −$17 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? Jun 24 $403 −$338 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $709 −$264 -37%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 23 $46 −$30 -65%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $126 −$116 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $48 −$12 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $70 +$56 +80%
Solana Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $138 −$3 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$6 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$8 +31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $90 −$32 -35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 18 $49 −$41 -83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $500 −$429 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $788 −$421 -54%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,555 +$80 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,464 +$8,971 +259%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$46 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $11,164 −$10,882 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1,468 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 14 $1,099 +$2,016 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2,857 −$246 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $3,782 −$2,292 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $2,690 +$1,320 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $232 −$138 -59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $130 −$108 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $45 −$41 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $74 −$25 -34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 30? May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 30? May 29 $21 +$9 +46%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? May 29 $51 −$32 -62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? May 28 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 28 $568 −$561 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $5,765 −$5,654 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $3,638 +$1,907 +52%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $100 −$6 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25? May 25 $1,459 +$2,086 +143%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $69 −$6 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 24? May 24 $309 −$177 -57%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $66 +$38 +57%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $321 −$304 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 16? May 16 $101 −$95 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $43 −$43 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 15? May 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 11 $427 −$408 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 10? May 10 $715 +$155 +22%
Solana Up or Down on May 10? May 09 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $743 −$110 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 21¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 24¢ $93 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? SELL No 63¢ $94 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? BUY No 71¢ $111 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? SELL Yes 5¢ $61 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $398 8h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 41¢ $401 8h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 62¢ $654 18h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 54¢ $12 21h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 56¢ $13 24h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? SELL Down 42¢ $13 24h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 56¢ $18 25h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 45¢ $19 25h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 63¢ $7 28h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 50¢ $17 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 38h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 42h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? SELL Up 26¢ $16 42h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? SELL Up 26¢ $20 42h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 31¢ $48 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? BUY Yes 16¢ $125 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 95¢ $126 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 51¢ $70 3d
Solana Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 100¢ $76 3d
Solana Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 99¢ $75 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.25 · official $152.13 · 496 history records