Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x301f…51ce sports 25 markets active 18h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$79
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$35
other 14% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.6% -20.9% 39% 39% -24.0%
≤30d 25 -2.7% -11.9% 44% 44% -15.1%
≤90d 25 -2.7% -11.9% 44% 44% -15.1%
all 25 -2.7% -11.9% 44% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 44% -15.1%
10% -20.4% 40% -23.2%
15% -28.1% 40% -30.6%
20% -35.1% 36% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$5 -21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $35 −$35 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $24 +$5 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 $0 -6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +71%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $47 +$17 +37%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 +$13 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 +$21 +88%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 −$3 -10%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $9 +$11 +116%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $26 −$1 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$10 -38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 +$21 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 +$14 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $21 +$11 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 +$24 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$22 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $20 17h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 18h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 38h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 40h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $3 40h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 43h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $25 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $4 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $14 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 37¢ $6 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $6 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $21 3d
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Harry Kane: 3+ goals SELL Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 41¢ $26 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $22 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $15 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $25 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $25 3d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records