Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3020…df2b crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$400 (-12%) realized −$338 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day117.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.3% -42.3% 38% 12% -31.1%
≤30d 8 -36.3% -42.3% 38% 12% -31.1%
≤90d 8 -36.3% -42.3% 38% 12% -31.1%
all 8 -36.3% -42.3% 38% 12% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.3% 12% -31.1%
10% ← realistic here -47.9% 0% -37.7%
15% -52.9% 0% -43.7%
20% -57.5% 0% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$54 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,089
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions17
Markets (closed)8 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day117.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? No 56¢ 46¢ $344 $285 −$59 (-17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $291 $231 −$61 (-21%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 23? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $98 $101 +$4 (+4%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 24? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 20? No 73¢ 78¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 20? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $39 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 15¢ 12¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Down 12¢ 6¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? No 19¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $164 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $170 +$24 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $217 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $68 −$65 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 60¢ $921 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 87¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? SELL No 97¢ $163 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? SELL Yes 97¢ $112 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? SELL No 79¢ $194 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? SELL No 84¢ $233 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 85¢ $344 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 69¢ $62 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 69¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 69¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 76¢ $16 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY No 61¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 76¢ $15 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $77 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $87 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $12 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $7 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY No 60¢ $19 2h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,088.66 · official $1,088.15 (match) · 117 history records