Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
30 0x3022…59c1 other 437 markets active 0h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29,191 (+2%) realized +$28,603 · open +$588
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate84%354W / 69L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$3,779per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$22,558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,706
7 days−$960
14 days+$5,528
30 days+$5,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$28,229
world 29% +$9,925
politics 16% −$4,579
weather 2% +$403
crypto 2% +$396
economics 1% +$201
culture 1% −$6,018
tech 0% +$46
sports 0% −$311
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.2% -20.5% 50% 14% -12.1%
≤30d 21 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 14% -2.7%
≤90d 94 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 3% -8.6%
all 423 -1.8% -11.1% 84% 6% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 6% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 3% -16.8%
15% -27.4% 1% -24.8%
20% -34.5% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$3,659) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$379 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$22,558
Realized+$28,603
Unrealized+$588
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses354 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)423 / 437
History coverage594d
Avg bet$3,779
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $9,750 $10,206 +$456 (+5%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $8,234 $8,546 +$312 (+4%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $2,321 $2,444 +$123 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $925 $589 −$336 (-36%)
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $192 $199 +$8 (+4%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $194 $196 +$1 (+1%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 74¢ 100¢ $74 $100 +$26 (+35%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 93¢ 78¢ $93 $78 −$14 (-16%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 87¢ $46 $49 +$4 (+8%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,844 +$576 +31%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,012 +$95 +9%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $920 +$76 +8%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7,260 +$1,099 +15%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $1,903 +$95 +5%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 20 $476 −$11 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,723 +$77 +4%
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 19 $111 −$8 -7%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 18 $1,551 −$246 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,200 −$1,198 -100%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $7,768 +$522 +7%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7,894 −$1,990 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $12,281 +$6,488 +53%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 01 $42 +$2 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,898 +$102 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $6,746 +$89 +1%
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? May 26 $1,769 −$94 -5%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? May 26 $960 +$29 +3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 26 $10,387 −$299 -3%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026? May 17 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 May 17 $43 +$2 +5%
Will James Comey leave the country by May 15? May 17 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $4,838 +$162 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 10 $3,352 +$29 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $21,615 +$403 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 02 $96 +$6 +7%
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $200 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 26? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: InControl vs girl kissers (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch May 02 $34 +$1 +4%
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? May 02 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 26? May 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on April 26? May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 26? May 02 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 26? May 02 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 26? May 02 $89 $0 +0%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m? May 02 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 26? May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Oman strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 26? May 02 $145 $0 +0%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on April 26? May 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on April 26? May 02 $210 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 26? May 02 $221 +$1 +0%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $252 +$10 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 26? May 02 $309 +$12 +4%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $551 +$55 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $3,680 +$37 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $850 8m
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $60 13m
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $50 19m
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 37m
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $80 53m
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $712 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $313 1h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $996 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,460 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $8,360 1h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 100¢ $554 1h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 100¢ $228 1h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 100¢ $551 1h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 100¢ $664 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 81¢ $466 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr SELL Yes 71¢ $103 22h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 67¢ $1,304 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $607 3d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 95¢ $447 4d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $128 4d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $280 5d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 5d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $92 5d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 95¢ $10 5d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $214 5d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $168 5d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $184 5d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 95¢ $61 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,558.11 · official $22,558.21 (match) · 2794 history records