Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3023…1ed8 crypto 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$829 (+5%) realized +$829 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%197W / 79L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day67.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$415
7 days+$705
14 days+$705
30 days+$705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$876
politics 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -7.7% -16.5% 71% 50% -5.0%
≤30d 205 -7.7% -16.5% 71% 50% -5.0%
≤90d 276 -8.0% -16.8% 71% 43% -6.1%
all 276 -8.0% -16.8% 71% 43% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 43% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 17% -15.1%
15% -32.0% 7% -23.3%
20% -38.7% 4% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$829
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses197 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)276 / 255
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day67.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 276 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$18 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $111 +$17 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$36 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$19 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$15 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$31 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$4 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$14 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$57 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $87 +$33 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$13 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$28 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$53 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $76 −$74 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$77 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $122 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $138 +$30 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $114 +$22 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $168 −$114 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$22 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$31 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $172 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $111 +$61 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records