Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3024…8ece
weather · 1142 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$508 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$306 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$126
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses204 / 954
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1158 / 1142
History coverage20d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day168.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 32 History 1158 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$866
7 days−$786
14 days−$672
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 62¢ $8 $22 +$14 (+179%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Yes 43¢ 49¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+487%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Yes 7¢ 26¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+268%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+129%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 39¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 8? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 6? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 14°C or below on March 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 15°C on March 26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 23? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 7? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -120%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 24? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on April 25? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 22? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Devils vs. Stars Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on April 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on May 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 30? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 6? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 6? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$676
sports 5% +$105
other 4% −$17
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 656 -50.8% -55.5% 12% 12% -65.6%
≤30d 1158 -17.7% -25.6% 18% 17% -28.8%
≤90d 1158 -17.7% -25.6% 18% 17% -28.8%
all 1158 -17.7% -25.6% 18% 17% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover168.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 17% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 15% -35.6%
15% -39.2% 14% -41.8%
20% -45.2% 13% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.25 · official $126.26 (match) · 3500 history records