Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
30 0x3028…8621 other 6 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1,719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$23
crypto 11% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 2 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 2 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 2 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 0% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 0% -16.8%
15% -24.8% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,719
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? No 99¢ 98¢ $611 $609 −$2 (-0%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? No 98¢ 99¢ $511 $515 +$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? No 97¢ 98¢ $330 $332 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? No 99¢ 99¢ $263 $263 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $700 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $585 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $88 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $87 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $87 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $87 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $87 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $87 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $87 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $175 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $87 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 97¢ $330 17h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $4 18h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $81 18h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $313 18h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? BUY No 99¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? BUY No 99¢ $83 20h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? BUY No 99¢ $607 20h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 97¢ $272 21h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $160 22h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $256 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,719.32 · official $1,719.32 (match) · 22 history records