Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x3029…0805 politics 3 markets active 22d ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$32,593 (+214%) realized +$32,542 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$5,066per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$15,859
other 9% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+50.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +66.7% +50.9% 50% 50% +195.3%
≤90d 2 +66.7% +50.9% 50% 50% +195.3%
all 2 +66.7% +50.9% 50% 50% +195.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.9% 50% +195.3%
10% ← realistic here +36.4% 50% +167.0%
15% +23.2% 50% +141.2%
20% +11.2% 50% +117.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +226% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +226% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
27.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16,009 vs −$149 · ×107.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×107.27 per $1 lost it wins $107.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,340
Realized+$32,542
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage17d
Avg bet$5,066
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $1,289 $1,340 +$51 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $7,019 −$149 -2%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $6,857 +$16,009 +234%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 1¢ $6 22d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 0¢ $93 22d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 1¢ $8 22d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 1¢ $47 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 97¢ $1,784 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 97¢ $1,940 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 97¢ $9,185 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 97¢ $8,149 22d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 97¢ $23,166 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 23¢ $1,120 28d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 38¢ $12 32d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 38¢ $467 32d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 38¢ $15 32d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 38¢ $545 32d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 37¢ $13 32d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 37¢ $574 32d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 37¢ $1,194 32d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 36¢ $2,182 32d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $297 36d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 21¢ $1 36d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 21¢ $4 36d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 21¢ $1 36d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 21¢ $2 36d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 21¢ $11 36d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 21¢ $1 36d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 21¢ $1 36d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 21¢ $133 36d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 21¢ $14 36d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 21¢ $500 36d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 21¢ $1 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,340.19 · official $1,340.19 (match) · 135 history records