Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
30 0x302a…c0ef politics 4 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,238 (-59%) realized −$1,070 · open −$168
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$168
other 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.9% +13.9% 50% 50% +90.0%
≤30d 2 +25.9% +13.9% 50% 50% +90.0%
≤90d 2 +25.9% +13.9% 50% 50% +90.0%
all 2 +25.9% +13.9% 50% 50% +90.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.9% 50% +90.0%
10% ← realistic here +3.0% 50% +71.8%
15% -6.9% 50% +55.2%
20% -16.1% 50% +40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$5 · ×7.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.63 per $1 lost it wins $7.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$498
Realized−$1,070
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$527
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No $567 $465 −$102 (-18%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $99 $33 −$66 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$38 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $403 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $2 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $24 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $7 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $62 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $93 3h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $9 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $10 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $12 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $3 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $2 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.82 · official $497.82 (match) · 46 history records