Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x302b…4035 sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+4%) realized +$93 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%59W / 58L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$88
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$195
other 22% −$93
world 8% −$4
politics 3% +$3
finance 2% −$32
crypto 1% −$6
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.4% -14.4% 39% 39% -3.6%
≤30d 74 +1.5% -8.2% 55% 55% -1.1%
≤90d 95 -2.9% -12.1% 54% 53% -1.8%
all 117 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 48% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 48% -2.5%
10% -25.2% 41% -11.8%
15% -32.4% 35% -20.3%
20% -39.0% 29% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses59 / 58
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions12
Markets (closed)117 / 129
History coverage118d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $66 $58 −$8 (-12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 62¢ 82¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+33%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 37¢ 66¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+79%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-41%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 46¢ 45¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 28¢ 2¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-93%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +199%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $49 +$82 +168%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 −$25 -55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$13 +66%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $5 +$13 +262%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $81 −$30 -37%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10 +$9 +86%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $30 +$5 +17%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 08 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 08 $5 +$4 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $5 +$14 +278%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$7 +146%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 07 $30 +$14 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $20 +$8 +40%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $36 +$69 +195%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $31 +$5 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $15 +$5 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $20 +$12 +60%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $45 +$29 +63%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 +$20 +66%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 57¢ $131 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $13 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 3d
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $34 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 62¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 26¢ $5 5d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $10 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.86 · official $207.86 (match) · 255 history records