Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x302b…e4be other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,164 (-25%) realized −$13,638 · open +$474
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,788per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$5,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,720
7 days−$11,674
14 days−$16,668
30 days−$16,668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$13,436
sports 23% −$2,758
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -41.9% -47.5% 29% 29% -46.6%
≤30d 25 -24.3% -31.5% 44% 44% -41.8%
≤90d 25 -24.3% -31.5% 44% 44% -41.8%
all 25 -24.3% -31.5% 44% 44% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 44% -41.8%
10% -38.1% 44% -47.4%
15% -44.1% 44% -52.5%
20% -49.6% 20% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$2,593) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,134 vs −$2,081 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$5,077
Realized−$13,638
Unrealized+$474
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1,788
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Norway 65¢ 64¢ $3,000 $2,931 −$69 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $800 $991 +$191 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $604 $958 +$354 (+59%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $482 −$470 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $2,296 −$2,250 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,672 −$3,600 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,019 +$1,684 +165%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,709 +$1,354 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,430 +$1,706 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,430 −$5,343 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $5,072 −$5,000 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 23 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,593 +$3,311 +128%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $220 −$215 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,376 +$572 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,407 −$2,352 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,389 −$5,358 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,022 +$1,219 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,515 +$724 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $796 +$374 +47%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 49¢ $203 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 50¢ $203 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 50¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $102 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $51 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $154 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $102 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance BUY Norway 65¢ $1,010 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $102 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $409 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $1,022 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance BUY Norway 65¢ $2,021 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $816 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,019 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1,018 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $182 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $611 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $234 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,023 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 23¢ $205 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,525 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,077.32 · official $5,077.32 (match) · 124 history records