Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
30 0x302c…cc1f crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 385d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$611 (-41%) realized −$611 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$86
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$539
politics 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +40.1% +26.8% 100% 100% +26.8%
≤30d 1 +40.1% +26.8% 100% 100% +26.8%
≤90d 1 +40.1% +26.8% 100% 100% +26.8%
all 8 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 50% -42.7%
10% -24.1% 50% -48.2%
15% -31.5% 50% -53.2%
20% -38.2% 25% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$198 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$611
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage385d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $213 +$86 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 13 $20 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 13 $6 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 13 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3900 and $4000 on August 8 at 5 Aug 08 $758 −$758 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 3? Jun 03 $331 +$151 +46%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 03 $123 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $299 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 72¢ $185 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $20 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $12 102d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3900 and $4000 on August 8 at 5 BUY Yes 65¢ $654 319d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3900 and $4000 on August 8 at 5 BUY Yes 65¢ $104 319d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 3? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 385d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 3? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 385d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 3? SELL Yes 94¢ $469 385d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 3? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 385d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 3? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 385d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 3? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 385d
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL Yes 93¢ $122 385d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 3? BUY Yes 66¢ $258 385d
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY Yes 94¢ $123 385d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records