Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x302c…abce weather 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$561 (+2%) realized +$560 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 46L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days−$1,144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +32.3% +19.7% 58% 33% -5.8%
≤30d 69 -4.6% -13.6% 36% 26% -14.0%
≤90d 71 -5.8% -14.8% 35% 25% -14.3%
all 71 -5.8% -14.8% 35% 25% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 25% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 18% -22.5%
15% -30.4% 15% -30.0%
20% -37.2% 15% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$151 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1,288
Realized+$560
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)71 / 82
History coverage30d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Yes 28¢ 70¢ $259 $653 +$393 (+152%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Yes 26¢ 35¢ $146 $194 +$48 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $163 $156 −$7 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $67 $114 +$47 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $87 $77 −$10 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $59 $51 −$8 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $464 $0 −$464 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24? Jun 23 $557 +$68 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $765 −$108 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $48 +$59 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $183 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 22 $283 +$62 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1,420 +$134 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $251 −$223 -89%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $20 +$23 +116%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $258 −$50 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $556 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$45 +91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $97 −$46 -47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $6 +$25 +388%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? Jun 21 $25 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 21 $65 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $131 −$18 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $129 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $200 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $33 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? Jun 21 $488 +$36 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $234 +$69 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 −$14 -39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1,828 −$1,811 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $36 −$13 -36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $220 −$97 -44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $215 −$213 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,094 −$1,060 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $641 −$218 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $881 −$324 -37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $295 −$188 -64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $277 −$264 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $981 +$522 +53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $864 +$114 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $172 +$17 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $746 −$744 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $630 +$576 +91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1? May 31 $139 −$137 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $419 +$961 +230%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 1? May 30 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $286 −$113 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $199 −$197 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $714 +$1,764 +247%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $353 −$349 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $112 −$53 -47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $50 −$8 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $720 +$772 +107%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 30? May 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 24m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 25m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 26m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 26m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 30m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? SELL Yes 20¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? SELL Yes 23¢ $86 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $237 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 77¢ $72 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 78¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $141 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 13¢ $83 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 75¢ $168 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,288.30 · official $1,288.30 (match) · 1681 history records