Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3030…86ae other 290 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,327 (+7%) realized +$2,667 · open −$340
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%106W / 163L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$268
14 days−$550
30 days−$776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$748
world 23% +$1,160
politics 8% −$369
tech 3% +$225
sports 3% +$120
crypto 2% −$481
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 28% -22.0%
≤30d 110 -11.3% -19.8% 35% 31% -14.9%
≤90d 269 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 35% -4.5%
all 269 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 35% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 35% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 31% -13.6%
15% -29.4% 24% -22.0%
20% -36.3% 17% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$51 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$829
Realized+$2,667
Unrealized−$340
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses106 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions21
Markets (closed)269 / 290
History coverage72d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 21¢ 34¢ $67 $110 +$43 (+64%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $200 $105 −$96 (-48%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 51¢ 68¢ $53 $71 +$18 (+34%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 38¢ 16¢ $159 $68 −$91 (-57%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $55 $65 +$10 (+18%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? No 18¢ 14¢ $71 $57 −$15 (-20%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 59¢ 74¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+25%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $52 $43 −$9 (-18%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $76 $38 −$37 (-49%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 37¢ 34¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-9%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $67 $29 −$38 (-57%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 17¢ $47 $26 −$21 (-45%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 36¢ 36¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $17 −$9 (-35%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 17¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-57%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+52%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 57¢ 24¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-59%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $7 +$27 +404%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $93 −$26 -28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $132 +$9 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $93 −$15 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $102 −$18 -18%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 16 $63 −$42 -67%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $267 −$73 -28%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 15 $178 +$28 +16%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 15 $264 +$24 +9%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $102 −$29 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $291 −$76 -26%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $61 +$13 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $346 −$123 -36%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 14 $30 +$14 +47%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 13 $193 +$70 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 13 $51 +$5 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$36 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $78 −$5 -6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $44 −$43 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $86 −$57 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $91 +$108 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $142 −$135 -95%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 04 $39 +$21 +54%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 04 $445 +$34 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $35 −$33 -94%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 04 $264 −$18 -7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 03 $74 −$70 -94%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $101 −$88 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $27 −$26 -96%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 03 $43 −$41 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 03 $177 −$88 -50%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 03 $329 −$125 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $87 −$83 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $38 +$18 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $72 +$494 +689%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $210 −$205 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $66 +$80 +121%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 02 $17 +$4 +21%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 01 $64 −$18 -28%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $17 +$11 +65%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $122 −$78 -64%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $312 +$91 +29%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $35 +$14 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $85 +$19 +23%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $61 −$7 -11%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 01 $245 −$5 -2%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 01 $1,185 +$591 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 52¢ $22 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $40 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $41 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $43 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 72¢ $24 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 5h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 36¢ $69 5h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $33 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $11 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $22 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 23h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 48¢ $17 23h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 2¢ $2 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 72¢ $30 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 63¢ $34 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $34 33h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 40¢ $7 33h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $69 33h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 42¢ $4 33h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 41¢ $12 33h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 37¢ $31 33h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $95 33h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $53 43h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 1¢ $3 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $828.83 · official $828.83 (match) · 2094 history records