Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x3032…99e7 other 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,388 (+15%) realized +$18,425 · open +$2,963
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate82%145W / 32L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$700per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$23,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$65
14 days+$179
30 days+$5,505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$8,199
world 28% +$5,408
crypto 25% +$4,772
finance 11% +$2,547
politics 2% −$623
tech 1% +$364
weather 0% +$191
sports 0% −$162
culture 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.2% -22.4% 75% 50% -14.0%
≤30d 51 +3.7% -6.1% 82% 69% +0.9%
≤90d 177 +10.1% -0.4% 82% 67% +3.4%
all 177 +10.1% -0.4% 82% 67% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 67% +3.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 35% -6.5%
15% -18.6% 15% -15.5%
20% -26.6% 7% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$874) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$141 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.95 per $1 lost it wins $4.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$23,025
Realized+$18,425
Unrealized+$2,963
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses145 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions30
Markets (closed)177 / 207
History coverage92d
Avg bet$700
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 84¢ 99¢ $2,000 $2,352 +$352 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 81¢ 99¢ $1,543 $1,894 +$351 (+23%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 71¢ 99¢ $1,200 $1,670 +$470 (+39%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 84¢ 94¢ $1,482 $1,648 +$166 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 76¢ 99¢ $1,174 $1,523 +$349 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 82¢ 96¢ $1,251 $1,461 +$210 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 76¢ 99¢ $1,054 $1,370 +$315 (+30%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 65¢ 67¢ $1,200 $1,220 +$20 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 81¢ 99¢ $735 $898 +$162 (+22%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 76¢ 98¢ $683 $877 +$194 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 81¢ 98¢ $707 $856 +$149 (+21%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 81¢ 91¢ $715 $807 +$92 (+13%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 75¢ 96¢ $600 $767 +$167 (+28%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 66¢ 44¢ $900 $603 −$297 (-33%)
Will BNB dip to $500 in June? No 58¢ 90¢ $367 $568 +$201 (+55%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 72¢ $500 $480 −$20 (-4%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $400 $455 +$55 (+14%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 87¢ 86¢ $435 $432 −$2 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 79¢ 96¢ $300 $365 +$65 (+22%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 76¢ 82¢ $300 $325 +$25 (+8%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 81¢ 88¢ $300 $324 +$24 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 81¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 86¢ 86¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 84¢ 95¢ $262 $298 +$35 (+14%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 84¢ 93¢ $252 $280 +$28 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $200 +$46 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $600 +$82 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$20 +7%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $213 −$213 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 08 $2,520 +$516 +20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $302 −$110 -36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $101 −$62 -61%
Will BNB dip to $600 in June? Jun 02 $350 −$350 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,660 +$434 +16%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $150 +$25 +17%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? Jun 01 $202 +$46 +23%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$56 +28%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $361 +$84 +23%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $402 +$89 +22%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $505 +$157 +31%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? Jun 01 $703 +$96 +14%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $660 +$211 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $600 +$393 +66%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May? Jun 01 $1,054 +$162 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? Jun 01 $1,506 +$154 +10%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 01 $1,629 +$218 +13%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$2 +47%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? May 30 $200 +$35 +17%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May? May 29 $303 +$76 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $4,107 +$347 +8%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 28 $406 $0 +0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $300 −$97 -32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $5,582 +$719 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 27 $2,061 +$808 +39%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 27 $28 +$4 +16%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May? May 27 $181 +$29 +16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 27 $240 −$124 -52%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 27 $300 +$51 +17%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May? May 27 $131 +$31 +23%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May? May 27 $162 +$65 +40%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 27 $202 +$55 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $1,041 +$230 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $380 −$380 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $345 +$35 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $376 +$47 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $300 +$35 +12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $7,596 +$592 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $303 +$68 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 22 $550 +$137 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,342 +$231 +17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 21 $303 +$72 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 21 $4,737 +$602 +13%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? May 20 $150 +$54 +36%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 20 $200 −$193 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $200 20m
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $247 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $684 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $300 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $200 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $213 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $200 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $100 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $300 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $200 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 84¢ $253 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 79¢ $203 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $300 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $300 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $301 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 77¢ $305 8d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $304 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $200 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 44¢ $256 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 53¢ $193 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,025.23 · official $23,026.56 (match) · 871 history records