Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3033…e69e crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54 (-9%) realized −$55 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%33W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$54
other 35% −$17
sports 4% +$6
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 308 -1.4% -10.8% 3% 3% -15.6%
≤30d 331 -3.8% -13.0% 5% 4% -17.4%
≤90d 367 -4.8% -13.9% 9% 8% -16.5%
all 367 -4.8% -13.9% 9% 8% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 8% -16.5%
10% -22.1% 7% -24.5%
15% -29.6% 5% -31.8%
20% -36.5% 4% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses33 / 334
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)367 / 75
History coverage31d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $66 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 330 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$9 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 —%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $67 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $31 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $26 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $26 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $12 46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.84 · official $76.84 (match) · 158 history records