Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x3034…507c sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$76 (+2%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%13W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$72
other 9% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.9%
all 13 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 0% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -16.7%
15% -24.6% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses13 / 0
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $305 +$8 +2%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $387 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $464 +$9 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $459 +$15 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $255 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $448 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $430 +$11 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $235 +$5 +2%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $354 +$3 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $416 +$8 +2%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $375 +$4 +1%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $372 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 64¢ $313 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $93 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $196 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $392 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 99¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 99¢ $99 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 98¢ $274 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $474 2h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $55 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $52 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 98¢ $357 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $474 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 95¢ $13 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 97¢ $254 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 97¢ $87 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 96¢ $82 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 97¢ $23 4h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi SELL Brazil 100¢ $257 4h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 99¢ $47 4h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 99¢ $198 4h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 99¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $453 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 99¢ $324 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 99¢ $124 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $442 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $31 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $2 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 97¢ $398 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records