Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3036…3d50 world 16 markets active 6d ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$121 (-27%) realized −$111 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$73
14 days−$88
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% −$104
other 5% −$4
weather 2% −$10
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -47.9% -52.8% 0% 0% -57.2%
≤30d 13 -56.6% -60.7% 8% 8% -34.7%
≤90d 13 -56.6% -60.7% 8% 8% -34.7%
all 13 -56.6% -60.7% 8% 8% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.7% 8% -34.7%
10% -64.5% 8% -41.0%
15% -67.9% 0% -46.7%
20% -71.0% 0% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$12 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage15d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $55 −$47 -85%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $38 −$3 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $20 −$6 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $25 −$17 -66%
Will Starmer say "Kid" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will "System" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$7 -22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $50 −$16 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $115 +$32 +28%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $14 −$7 -50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 −$24 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $35 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $35 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 7d
Will Starmer say "Kid" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe BUY No 41¢ $3 7d
Will "System" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee BUY No 24¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 43¢ $23 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 45¢ $34 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 63¢ $97 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $40 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.67 · official $29.67 (match) · 43 history records