Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x3036…3277 crypto 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
Total PnL +$1,788 (+42%) realized +$1,892 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%34W / 62L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$1,650
tech 6% +$260
other 4% −$144
world 2% −$101
finance 2% +$10
sports 1% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+71.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 -26.5% -33.5% 25% 25% -8.2%
all 96 +90.0% +71.9% 35% 35% +33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.9% 35% +33.9%
10% +55.4% 35% +21.0%
15% +40.4% 35% +9.4%
20% +26.7% 34% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +122% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$35 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$1,892
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses34 / 62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage361d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Yes 26¢ 41¢ $68 $108 +$40 (+58%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 30¢ 1¢ $150 $6 −$144 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 4? May 05 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 1? Apr 30 $21 −$20 -94%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $101 −$101 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 06 $60 −$60 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? Apr 06 $30 +$70 +233%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? Apr 04 $169 +$261 +155%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 24? Mar 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25? Mar 23 $35 −$35 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 18? Mar 18 $20 +$61 +307%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 16? Mar 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 16? Mar 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 11? Mar 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 11? Mar 09 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 9? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 9? Mar 09 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 07 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $20 +$59 +293%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 6? Mar 06 $40 +$52 +130%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 6? Mar 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 5? Mar 05 $35 +$68 +194%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 3? Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 27? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $20 +$178 +890%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 26? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 26? Feb 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 26? Feb 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 17? Feb 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 9? Feb 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 8? Feb 06 $45 +$270 +600%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 8? Feb 05 $100 +$263 +263%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 2? Feb 02 $146 +$164 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 18? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 22? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 14? Feb 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 12? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 14? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 26? Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 30? Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 28? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 31? Feb 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 31? Jan 31 $0 $0 +4786%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 6? Jan 31 $150 +$150 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 31 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 29? Jan 29 $25 +$106 +426%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 25 $11 +$12 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 24 $10 +$8 +82%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 21? Jan 21 $20 −$3 -14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $15 +$25 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 16¢ $10 42d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 32¢ $144 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 4? BUY No 36¢ $73 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 1? BUY No 14¢ $21 49d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $30 63d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $30 63d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $41 64d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7? BUY Down 49¢ $60 73d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? SELL Up 100¢ $100 73d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? BUY Up 30¢ $30 75d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? SELL No 93¢ $430 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 24? BUY No 28¢ $35 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25? BUY No 35¢ $35 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 18? SELL No 100¢ $81 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 18? BUY No 24¢ $20 93d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 16? BUY No 29¢ $100 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 16? BUY No 6¢ $20 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 16? BUY No 14¢ $6 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 16? BUY No 17¢ $35 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 11? BUY No 15¢ $30 100d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 11? BUY No 15¢ $54 101d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 9? BUY No 3¢ $20 102d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 9? BUY No 24¢ $100 102d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 9? BUY No 21¢ $30 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $5 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 6? SELL No 55¢ $79 104d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 6? SELL No 99¢ $92 104d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 6? BUY No 2¢ $10 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.02 · official $104.84 · 214 history records