Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x3037…f855 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$136 (-9%) realized −$127 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$17
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$16
other 48% +$20
culture 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% -2.9%
≤30d 3 +54.0% +39.3% 67% 67% +33.2%
≤90d 17 +9.2% -1.2% 41% 41% -1.9%
all 18 +3.2% -6.7% 39% 39% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 39% -9.9%
10% -15.6% 39% -18.5%
15% -23.7% 39% -26.4%
20% -31.2% 39% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$67 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage188d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $251 $242 −$9 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $112 +$137 +122%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$140 +140%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 25 $240 −$238 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $51 +$60 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $127 −$125 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $103 +$104 +101%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $51 +$49 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 15 $51 +$212 +414%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 10 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 44¢ $112 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $122 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 7d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Thunder 69¢ $240 31d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $51 33d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 48¢ $127 33d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Thunder 100¢ $207 33d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 100¢ $100 33d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Thunder 49¢ $103 33d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 50¢ $51 37d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $20 37d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 31¢ $20 37d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Thunder 27¢ $10 37d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 50¢ $30 37d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Cavaliers 100¢ $54 38d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 37¢ $20 39d
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 39d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 41d
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 46d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $51 47d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 187d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.98 · official $241.98 (match) · 26 history records