Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
30 0x303a…02d8 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-7%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$169
sports 33% −$224
crypto 8% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.5% -44.3% 40% 40% -12.2%
≤30d 5 -38.5% -44.3% 40% 40% -12.2%
≤90d 5 -38.5% -44.3% 40% 40% -12.2%
all 5 -38.5% -44.3% 40% 40% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.3% 40% -12.2%
10% -49.6% 40% -20.6%
15% -54.5% 40% -28.3%
20% -59.0% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$75 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$34 +66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $407 +$169 +42%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $81 −$79 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $46 −$45 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $520 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $204 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $203 10h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $81 12h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $46 33h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records