Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
30 0x303f…aa41 crypto 1251 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$965 (-4%) realized −$966 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate73%914W / 336L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,506
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 66% -17.3%
≤30d 207 -1.8% -11.2% 78% 57% -14.8%
≤90d 997 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 58% -17.7%
all 1250 +2.3% -7.4% 73% 58% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 58% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 42% -23.3%
15% -24.4% 27% -30.7%
20% -31.8% 17% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$24 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$966
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses914 / 336
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1250 / 1251
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Down 79¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $75 −$46 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$46 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$26 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$9 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.76 · official $3.76 (match) · 3500 history records