Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x3042…bad1 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$146 (+2%) realized +$122 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate80%32W / 8L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$76
14 days+$29
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$223
world 2% +$2
crypto 2% −$67
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.9% -12.1% 80% 40% -6.7%
≤30d 13 -11.2% -19.7% 69% 38% -11.4%
≤90d 40 +5.3% -4.7% 80% 62% -7.1%
all 40 +5.3% -4.7% 80% 62% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 62% -7.1%
10% -13.8% 45% -16.0%
15% -22.2% 20% -24.1%
20% -29.8% 8% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$43 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,384
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses32 / 8
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage82d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 98¢ 100¢ $1,350 $1,374 +$24 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 98¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,921 +$23 +1%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $347 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $101 +$58 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $300 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $20 +$13 +62%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $33 +$11 +32%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $41 −$40 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $101 −$67 -66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $111 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $105 +$63 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $62 +$13 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana G May 10 $200 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) May 10 $56 −$56 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) May 09 $45 +$23 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 04 $383 +$17 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $51 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $70 +$7 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B May 03 $70 +$19 +27%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Apr 29 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 29 $60 +$19 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $22 +$7 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $40 +$14 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $123 +$42 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $56 +$20 +36%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 14 $19 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 14 $31 +$12 +40%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5) Apr 14 $55 +$11 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Apr 09 $22 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $15 +$5 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group S Apr 07 $34 +$6 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Apr 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 04 $16 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Gr Apr 04 $30 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 04 $32 +$9 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 04 $26 −$3 -12%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 27 $3 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 100¢ $400 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $524 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $400 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 100¢ $100 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $89 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 100¢ $46 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $147 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $49 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 100¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $61 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $61 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $49 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $1,247 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $12 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $106 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 100¢ $52 6h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 100¢ $248 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $101 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 99¢ $300 10d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 61¢ $101 12d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $101 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 61¢ $20 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne BUY BetBoom Team 75¢ $33 15d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 57¢ $41 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $34 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $101 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,383.61 · official $1,383.61 (match) · 102 history records