Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3042…26ee
sports · 282 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$29 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses109 / 161
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)270 / 282
History coverage95d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 12 History 270 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Katerina Siniakova 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 72¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 43¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by June 30? Yes 74¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +123%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -11%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% −$2
other 27% −$14
world 11% −$3
politics 9% −$13
crypto 9% $0
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Australia 100¢ $1 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $1 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 0¢ $1 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $1 6h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 6h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $1 8h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 80¢ $1 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 72¢ $1 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 9h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 9h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 10h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 10h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 10h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $1 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 11h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 87¢ $2 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $2 11h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 11h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $1 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +0.3% -9.3% 45% 39% -9.7%
≤30d 162 -2.9% -12.2% 44% 38% -12.9%
≤90d 265 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 30% -18.1%
all 270 -8.8% -17.5% 40% 30% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 30% -18.2%
10% -25.4% 23% -26.0%
15% -32.6% 18% -33.2%
20% -39.2% 14% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.21 · official $12.21 (match) · 676 history records