Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

30 0x3043…4143 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$2,948 (-48%) realized −$980 · open −$1,968

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip

Net edge-68%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$405per market

Trades / day70.2pace

Fees−$96est.

Kalshi-fit93%portable

Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-61.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-57.3%	-61.4%	17%	17%	-84.7%
≤30d	6	-57.3%	-61.4%	17%	17%	-84.7%
≤90d	6	-57.3%	-61.4%	17%	17%	-84.7%
all	6	-57.3%	-61.4%	17%	17%	-84.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover70.2 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-61.4%	17%	-84.7%
10%	-65.1%	17%	-86.2%
15% ← realistic here	-68.4%	17%	-87.5%
20%	-71.5%	17%	-88.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -83% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -57% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$365 vs −$664 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.11 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$523

Realized−$980

Unrealized−$1,968

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$96

Open positions9

Markets (closed)6 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$405

Trades / day70.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	No	22¢	14¢	$568	$374	−$194 (-34%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Under	33¢	32¢	$101	$99	−$2 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Under	30¢	23¢	$60	$46	−$14 (-23%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Under	24¢	0¢	$500	$1	−$499 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Under	40¢	0¢	$607	$1	−$606 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Under	21¢	0¢	$300	$1	−$299 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Under	37¢	0¢	$295	$0	−$295 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Under	20¢	0¢	$40	$0	−$40 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Under	10¢	0¢	$20	$0	−$20 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$594	−$594	-100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$982	−$982	-100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$977	−$977	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$234	+$365	+156%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$248	−$248	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$520	−$520	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	22¢	$581	40m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	33¢	$103	50m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	24¢	$511	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	21¢	$307	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	17¢	$89	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	20¢	$40	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	30¢	$28	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	30¢	$0	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	25¢	$8	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	20¢	$20	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	20¢	$17	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	10¢	$5	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	10¢	$6	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	10¢	$1	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	20¢	$2	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	10¢	$1	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	10¢	$7	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	10¢	$1	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	30¢	$31	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	10¢	$0	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	10¢	$0	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	25¢	$17	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	46¢	$230	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$77	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$1	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$5	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$5	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$5	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$426	2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	54¢	$594	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.23 · official $523.23 (match) · 83 history records