Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
30 0x3047…4994 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$935 (+32%) realized +$934 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$497
14 days+$922
30 days+$922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$923
other 33% −$1
crypto 30% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +52.4% +37.9% 50% 50% +21.1%
≤30d 7 +55.1% +40.4% 71% 57% +25.1%
≤90d 7 +55.1% +40.4% 71% 57% +25.1%
all 7 +55.1% +40.4% 71% 57% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.4% 57% +25.1%
10% +26.9% 57% +13.1%
15% +14.7% 57% +2.2%
20% +3.4% 43% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$1 · ×313.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×783.12 per $1 lost it wins $783.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized+$934
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage11d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $495 $496 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $485 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $209 +$291 +140%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $294 +$206 +70%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $366 +$134 +37%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $209 +$291 +140%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $370 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.94 · official $495.94 (match) · 21 history records