Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3049…3210 crypto 1693 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$808 (-22%) realized −$808 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%1047W / 843L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day106.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$85
14 days+$174
30 days+$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$497
other 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1156 -24.1% -31.4% 46% 46% -12.3%
≤30d 1890 -5.0% -14.1% 55% 55% -4.2%
≤90d 1890 -5.0% -14.1% 55% 55% -4.2%
all 1890 -5.0% -14.1% 55% 55% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 55% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 54% -13.4%
15% -29.8% 42% -21.8%
20% -36.7% 36% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$808
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses1047 / 843
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1890 / 1693
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day106.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1890 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records