Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
30 0x304a…3d25 sports 5 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$101 (+13%) realized +$117 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$111
other 12% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +42.0% +28.5% 75% 75% +4.8%
≤30d 4 +42.0% +28.5% 75% 75% +4.8%
≤90d 4 +42.0% +28.5% 75% 75% +4.8%
all 4 +42.0% +28.5% 75% 75% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.5% 75% +4.8%
10% +16.2% 75% -5.2%
15% +5.0% 50% -14.4%
20% -5.3% 25% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$26 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.31 per $1 lost it wins $5.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $97 $81 −$16 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $501 −$26 -5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 +$23 +45%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 +$13 +26%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $98 +$101 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 86¢ $476 40h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $501 40h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $48 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $51 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $50 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $50 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.83 · official $80.83 (match) · 19 history records