Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x304d…4a39
other · 244 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$76 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$76 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage122d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 243 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$10
14 days−$23
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $253 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $471 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $346 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $288 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $144 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $290 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $128 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $273 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $191 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $125 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $192 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 03 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $349 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $418 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $204 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $201 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $340 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $221 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $364 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% −$33
sports 25% −$20
culture 8% −$7
crypto 7% −$5
politics 7% −$5
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 17m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 3h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 3h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 4h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 5h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 7h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 9h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 10h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 11h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 13h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 14h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 17h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 18h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 21h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 23h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 27h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 36h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 37h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 38h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 40h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 42h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 44h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 46h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.17 · official $54.17 (match) · 1269 history records