Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x304d…8558 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-3%) realized −$54 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days+$6
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$244
sports 43% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -30.4% -37.0% 21% 21% -9.0%
≤30d 46 -40.4% -46.0% 17% 17% -13.6%
≤90d 46 -40.4% -46.0% 17% 17% -13.6%
all 46 -40.4% -46.0% 17% 17% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 17% -13.6%
10% -51.2% 17% -21.9%
15% -55.9% 17% -29.4%
20% -60.2% 15% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$19 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 38
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage8d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$168 +165%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $173 −$171 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $127 +$93 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $162 −$160 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 −$17 -55%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $48 +$86 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$148 +146%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $120 −$117 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $171 +$68 +40%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $20 +$15 +75%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$24 +474%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $16 −$8 -49%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $58 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $102 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $72 34h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $61 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $15 2d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 22¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.91 · official $338.91 (match) · 80 history records