Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x304d…31e9 sports 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$23
14 days−$6
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$14
sports 32% +$35
crypto 8% −$34
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -7.1% -15.9% 22% 22% -17.9%
≤30d 61 +1.9% -7.8% 25% 25% -13.1%
≤90d 61 +1.9% -7.8% 25% 25% -13.1%
all 61 +1.9% -7.8% 25% 25% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 25% -13.1%
10% -16.6% 25% -21.4%
15% -24.7% 21% -29.0%
20% -32.1% 21% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 46
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)61 / 70
History coverage26d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 100¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+67%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$26 +844%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$13 +125%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$27 +257%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -68%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 +$15 +30%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$9 +446%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$16 +501%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $5 +$9 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $51 −$3 -6%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $26 −$4 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 +$40 +647%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $5 +$5 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $26 12h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 47h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $51 47h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 99¢ $13 5d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 74¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 38¢ $10 6d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 43¢ $10 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $10 6d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 21¢ $10 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $4 6d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 27¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.83 · official $166.83 (match) · 183 history records