Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x304e…9142 crypto 454 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+1%) realized +$76 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%210W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$140
14 days−$236
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$119
other 1% −$29
world 1% −$1
sports 0% +$18
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -12.8% -21.1% 47% 43% -18.0%
≤30d 143 -15.1% -23.1% 45% 43% -21.1%
≤90d 166 -16.2% -24.1% 43% 40% -24.4%
all 452 -2.1% -11.5% 46% 44% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 44% -11.8%
10% -19.9% 39% -20.2%
15% -27.7% 35% -28.0%
20% -34.8% 31% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses210 / 242
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)452 / 454
History coverage153d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $144 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$9 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$21 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$11 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$15 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$9 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 20 $21 −$11 -51%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $30 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 52¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 39¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 44¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 38¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $17 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 60¢ $28 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 62¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.95 · official $13.95 (match) · 1549 history records